CROP REPORT | JANUARY 2025

The paths of the new crop

An overview of the production, market and logistical challenges shaping the new coffee crop in Brazil's Bourbon producing regions in 2025

January 2025 | Poços de Caldas, MG, Brazil

Barreiro Farm, Poços de Caldas, MG - Brazil

Despite initial concerns about a crop shortfall, the latest information shows that the reduction will not be as great as expected. The current expectation is for a drop of around 10% in arabica production compared to the previous harvest, a more positive figure than initially projected.

In addition, the crops are showing good grain development, which may help to partially compensate for the drop. The size of the grains is above average, and the grain size has been satisfactory, indicating that the quality could be surprising. As a result, even with the reduction in production, the coffees harvested could perform well on the market.

Weather: favorable conditions boost the harvest

Photo: archive

After a long drought and the arrival of the rains, the weather has been one of the main positive factors in this crop. Conditions are favorable for plant development, with suitable temperatures and well-distributed rainfall. There are no records of climatic extremes that could compromise the quality of the grains or hinder cultivation.

If this weather pattern continues until September, the potential for the 2026 crop will be even greater. The plants are showing significant vigor, which is a reflection of good cultivation and investment by producers. This recovery is especially important after the challenges faced last year.

Productivity: mountain regions and Campos Altos stand out

Photo: archive

Some coffee-growing regions are standing out this crop year, especially the mountain areas and the Campos Altos region. In Poços de Caldas and the South of Minas, producers are expecting a higher production than last year, which reinforces the potential of the crop in these places. Campos Altos is also in good condition, with satisfactory production expected.

In Espírito Santo, on the other hand, the coffee load is lower compared to last year. However, the quality of the beans is expected to be higher, which could increase the value of the region's coffees.

Another relevant factor is that the beans are expected to ripen evenly, as a result of the late flowering. This means that the fruit should reach the ideal harvest point in a more synchronized manner, reducing the amount of green beans and improving the final quality of the coffee. Based on this, the harvest is expected to begin in mid-May, which will allow for a more homogeneous and well-planned harvest.

Domestic market: low supply drives up prices

Photo: archieve

On the domestic market, coffee sales have already made significant progress. Currently, it is estimated that only 15% of the crop year is still available for sale, which is having an impact on price differentials.

Even with the market on the rise, the differentials for Brazilian coffee are getting more and more expensive, which demonstrates a consistent demand for the product. This appreciation should continue until the next crop year arrives, reinforcing a scenario of higher prices in the short and medium term. For producers who still have stock, this trend could represent a good opportunity to sell.

Port issue: logistical challenges persist

Photo: Tom Fisk

Port logistics continues to be a challenge for the sector. The lack of containers and delays in shipments continue to have an impact on exports, making the flow of production slower and more unpredictable.

Many ships arrive at Brazilian ports, but leave without carrying all the expected cargo, which causes congestion and increases logistics costs. Faced with this scenario, exporters are recommending booking shipments as early as possible, allowing for better planning and reducing the risk of shipping delays.

This situation is expected to persist over the coming months, making it essential to closely monitor port conditions to avoid negative impacts on international deliveries.

General market: volatility and speculation heat up prices

Photo: energepic.com

The market continues to move upwards, driven by factors such as reduced supply and speculation about the crop year. The Coffee Exchange has been registering significant increases, and there is no consensus on how high prices can go.

As long as the definition of the crop year is not yet complete, the market should continue to be volatile. Many investors are betting on an even greater appreciation, which is keeping prices high.

Another relevant factor is the conilon crop year in Brazil, which could reach a record volume. If this is confirmed, there could be an impact on both the domestic market and exports, with repercussions on the prices of the different varieties of coffee.

About Bourbon

A pioneer in the specialty coffee market for 25 years, Bourbon Specialty Coffee is a Brazilian exporter of green coffee beans, based in Poços de Caldas, in the south of Minas Gerais.

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